FED Meeting – What to look for?
The FED meeting today is important for setting up future rate moves. I would pay less attention to the data and more attention to the tone of the language. Regarding the risk of a hike today, it is close to…
FED Rate Forecast for 2017
Our forecast for future rate hikes by the FED in 2017 depend on inflationary pressures arising from the new economic policies of Trump. In general, inflation seems to be picking up, or we should say inflationary expectations are picking up…
FED Rate Forecast
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
FED Rate Forecast & FMOC Minutes
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
FED Outlook 2016
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
FED 2016 Rate Forecast
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
December Rate Hike – then what?
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
South Africa – A sign of things to come?
The monetary policy committee in South Africa raised rates by 0.25% last week amid fears of the coming US Fed rate rise in December. This has happened even though growth is expected to be about 1.5% next year and with…
December FED Hike – what now?
Mixed signals keep on coming from the FED regarding a rate hike. More economists and market participants are now convinced of a December rate hike. Chances of a hike did go up thanks to the recent strong jobs report. However,…
FED – Diminished Chance of 2015 Rate Hike
The expected September rate hike did not happen as we predicted in August. This was due mostly to turmoil in the financial markets as a result of the Chinese slowdown. In addition, the inflation numbers were weak. Going forward, we…
