Brexit Vote Forecast
Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen. There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…
Anti-Austerity Forces in Portugal and Spain
Anti-austerity forces in Portugal and Spain represent a threat to Germany and European unity. Yesterday, the leftist alliance defeated legislation in parliament that resulted in the end of Prime Minister Coelho after years increased taxes and spending cuts. On the…
Greece and Europe: Disagreement on Foreclosure Protection
The latest in the Greek saga has delayed the latest 2 Billion Euro aid tranche and has put a hold on the 10 Billion Euros earmarked for recapitalizing the banks. The disagreement is on what level of foreclosure protection to…
Syria: Is a Deal in the Works?
There are strong reasons to think so. The recent deal between Turkey and the EU is related towards finding a solution for Syria. The fight for Aleppo could result in a large wave of migrants (500,000 plus) flowing to Turkey…
Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer
Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU. The impetus of the deal was the increasing migration mess in Europe…
Global Macro Context™ – Greece the Euro and Politics
The Syriza government in Greece is at a critical juncture. Having failed to deliver on campaign promises thus far, it has instead focused on several small symbolic victories. The visit to Russia to meet with Putin and making a recent…
