ECB September Rate Forecast
ECB Expected to Raise Rates Our view is with the market, with a majority (66%) in this case that sees the ECB raising rates. Economists are split evenly on this. After 9 consecutive rate hikes, rates have gone up and…
ARM IPO and Market Sentiment
ARM IPO and AI Boom The ARM IPO (Initial Public Offering) is currently valued at $54.5 and how this plays out will have implications beyond this IPO. This will potentially affect the AI Boom (or Hype). Softbank, the Japanese investment…
Monetary Policy Outlook
Short-term Divergence in Monetary Policy Expected The US economy is currently the best positioned of the major economies. In contrast, Europe has the Ukraine-Russian war plus week demand in China. Unlike other areas, European data on inflation is mixed puts…
Market Outlook Q4 2023
Our outlook is that that the combination of over-priced markets, AI-hype, and geo-political risk will mean a correction sometime in September or October. This is is based on the recent escalation of geo-political risk between China and the US on…
Chinese Government bans on Apple iPhones and New Huawei Chip
The geopolitical landscape is becoming a significant concern for both Apple and Huawei. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is a primary source of this risk. Apple, an American company, and Huawei, a Chinese firm, are caught…
August CPI Forecast
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most important economic indicators used to measure inflation. It provides valuable insights into the changes in prices of goods and services over a period of time. The CPI is released monthly…
China Property Market Risk
In recent years, the property market in China has experienced significant growth and has become a vital part of the country's economy. However, there are increasing concerns about the risks associated with the market, especially in light of the current…
China Deflation and Market Implications
China has recently slipped into a period of deflation. This has raised concerns among economists and policymakers about the state of China's economy and its implications for global trade. In this article, we will explore the concept of deflation, its…
Apple Earnings and FOMO Trade
Some analysts have kept a buy on Apple such Citi. Don't buy the AI-hype (generative ai) as we think the stock is due for a fall this Thursday. There are several headwinds that have increased the chance of the company…
The Impact of the Fitch Credit Rating Downgrade
Deterioration in standards of governance eminating from the recent political standoffs and last-minute resolutions on the debt ceiling finally pushed Fitch to downgrade the US fro AAA to AA+. In reality the difference between these two ratings in minimal and…
