Strong Possibility of the Leave Campaign winning. Brexit is clearly more likely to happen. Please see my quick analysis in the previous article. Expectations: GBP to drop to around 1.20 or even less by year end. US Dollar and Japanese…
The vote is going to be close. During the last few days, the markets and the polls showed the Stay Campaign with a slight edge. Today, I closed out most of my 'risk-on' positions with a profit. It was just…
Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen. There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union. First of all the issue is…
The Doha Meeting will impact oil prices for 2016. Many analyst are confused at what will transpire at this meeting. There seems to be a weak view building that the meeting will produce some type of agreement but lots…
Our forecast for FED rate hikes in 2016 was 2 hikes for 2016. We strongly doubted the then prevailing market view of 3 to 4 hikes. It is now clear that the maximum number of hikes will be 2 at…
Oil Forecast An oil price recovery is the key to a commodity rebound since oil is priced in dollars and it is an input into commodity production. The continuation of economic stimulus programs in the EU, Japan and China bodes…
Changes are at hand regarding US policy in the Middle East. In this article, I will argue the US pullback is misguided due to a narrow definition of risks and benefits. While it is true that US interests have been…
Our last post highlighted our belief in a Syrian Deal in the works and our main reasons behind this thesis. In this post, we look at what shape a Syrian political solution will take politically and why. The focus will…
Now that Putin has achieved his goals in Syria, expect a Syrian Deal to be put on the fast track. Putin’s first goal was popularity back home and it looks like he was very successful here. Secondly, he was able…
The December rate hike is now clearly going to happen. The Fed has been spelling this out in its messages to the market. Expectations are for a 0.25 to 0.5 hike. In all likelihood it will be 0.25. The big…
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