The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk. The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier. It is in fact a vote for more centralization. Business activity should be easier since local authorities…
We have taken a speculative position on the OPEC meeting in November. There are arguments for both a deal and also a no-deal scenario. I will briefly discuss both scenarios, then provide what our view is and why. First, the…
Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations have risen quite a bit as can be seen clearly…
The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED. This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly unlikely for two reasons - the data was not conclusive…
The Bank of Japan has key decisions to make tomorrow. In fact, this meeting is seen as more important than the FED meeting by the market since the range of policy options that could be undertaken by the BOJ is…
Market volatility has gone up over the last few days. In fact it was under 12 during the past 5 days and recently jumped to over 18. Currently, it went down to the 16 range, loosing more than 6%. The…
Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data. The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant a rate rise in September. Thus, nothing will occur in…
Rates in the UK were cut to lowest point ever over Brexit concerns. In short, the increased uncertainty over the move to leave the EU has impacted confidence and business investment. This has affected consumer spending, the real estate market,…
New stimulus was announced but waiting to do possibly more at the next meeting in September. In short, they decided to assess their approach, so a cautious approach. The move today is also a recognition that policy might be at…
The failed coup was over before it really started. It looked like a desperate attempt to overthrow the current AKP government. Unlike coups of the past in Turkey, this one did not have the support of the electorate. Firstly, about…