Implications: US and China Lula’s reported reelection in Brazil could complicate the Trump administration’s effort to expand U.S. influence in Latin America and counter China. Brazil’s economic ties with Beijing are expected to deepen, making the country an important swing…
Possible Risk Outcomes against Iran Middle Eastern mediators are trying to revive stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran as military tensions rise. The U.S. is deploying additional naval and Marine forces to the region, while Israel is reportedly…
Diesel Deal: US Domestic Political Considerations President Trump’s plan to reduce US diesel prices by easing sanctions on Russian diesel exports and pursuing a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire involving energy infrastructure. While Russia could supply some diesel, the proposed volumes would cover…
US Military and Gulf Counties Keep Oil Flowing The U.S. sanctions and naval blockade are placing severe economic pressure on Iran, restricting oil revenues, foreign currency, imports, and access to global finance. However, global energy markets have adapted to disruptions…
Greenlandic Independence Seen as Main Risk Greenland’s strategic location makes it vital to U.S. and NATO Arctic defense, particularly for monitoring Russian submarines, protecting North Atlantic supply lines, and supporting missile-warning systems. Although independence is a long-term political goal in…
US Prosecuters Target Huawei U.S. prosecutors opened a criminal trial accusing Huawei of stealing American trade secrets, violating sanctions, and misleading banks to expand its global telecommunications business. Huawei’s defense denied the allegations, arguing that prosecutors were misrepresenting ordinary business…
Trust in the US Dollar is Main Risk The US dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency because of its liquidity, institutional credibility, and central role in global trade and finance. However, Donald Trump’s use of tariffs and financial sanctions…
Trade War Damage is Asymmetric, but both Sides Hurt Canada is showing strong public and political support for resisting President Donald Trump’s tariffs, while opposition in the United States is growing because of fears about higher prices, economic disruption, and…
Trade Tensions but Full-Decoupling Unlikely The long-running U.S.-China trade war escalated under Trump I and continued under Biden. In Trump II, it has escalated. However, a full economic decoupling still seems unlikely despite major tensions. The trade war includes tariffs,…
Is China's Economic Model Sustainable? China’s economic model is more vulnerable than many think since China’s growth depends heavily on exports, subsidies, cheap credit, financial repression, and currency manipulation—while weak household consumption, falling investment efficiency, and rising debt make the…
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