Macro Blog

04Dec 16

Chinese – US Policy Uncertainty

The recent phone call to from the president of Taiwan to Trump certainly inflated the Chinese and increased uncertainty in Asia.  In contrast to a Clinton victory, China is going…

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04Dec 16

Italian Referendum

The Italian Referendum is a potential macro risk.  The vote is for a more simplified government so that changes can be implemented easier.  It is in fact a vote for…

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30Nov 16

OPEC Forecast

We have taken a speculative position on the OPEC meeting in November.  There are arguments for both a deal and also a no-deal scenario. I will briefly discuss both scenarios,…

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16Nov 16

FED Rate Forecast

Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative.   The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations…

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13Oct 16

FED Rate Forecast & FMOC Minutes

The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED.  This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly…

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