Macro Blog

27Mar 18

Trade War Forecast

Our view regarding the recent escalation of trade tensions is that we are just at the start of the process and that the recent market rally yesterday is premature. Chinese…

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23Feb 18

Monetary Policy Forecast

Our monetary policy forecast stays the same.  In short, we believe that the FED will raise more times and to a greater degree than the consensus three rate rises forecast.…

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03Sep 17

North Korean Risks

North Korea dramatically escalated tensions by testing a very powerful bomb today.  Experts are skeptical that it was a hydrogen bomb.  However, it is at least 10x more powerful than…

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14Mar 17

March Rate Hike and Fed Policy

The market now sees 3 rate hikes instead of 2 for for 2017.  We have had this position for some time in our previous forecasts. Regarding the pace of rate…

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13Mar 17

Turkish Referendum and Dutch Spat

The tensions between Turkey and the Netherlands has heated up with threats of sanctions.  From an investment point of view, it is politically motivated on both sides due to the…

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