FED Rate Decision

The rate decision is due at 2:00 pm today.  More important than the rate decision is the end policy rate signals from the FED.  Based on tightening credit conditions which acts as a break of the economy, this should decrease the probability of a 0.5 rate hike and the concensus now seems to be a 0.25 rate hike.

As mentioned the important message is the ulitimate policy rate and direction.  Since the FED can hike by 0 or by 0.25 today but that does not mean that it is done with inflation above the policy rate.  What the recent events in the banking sector have done is that the recession is now moved forward from late 2023 to early 2024.

The market reaction will depend highly on signals on policy rate policy not the amount or rate hikes today.  Thus, keep an eye on the statement.