Brexit Vote Forecast

Our position on Brexit is that it will be very close but will not happen.  There are several reasons that we think the vote will swing in favor of staying in the European Union.

First of all the issue is very complicated and probably should not have been put to referendum without getting all the facts straight. Both sides have been accused of proving wrong information.  Thus, the vote will be base on misguided facts.

Yes it is difficult to know all the facts up front, but the risk of uncertainty has not been presented correctly.  That is why I think the leave campaign had a lead.  But this lead is narrowing.

We have taken positions in oil and copper since we think these two assets will gain if Britain does not leave the European Union.