Trump Administration and Tension over Iran Nuclear Atomic Plans
Iran Policy Dilema: Maximum Pressure or Attack Nuclear Sites
Donald Trump plans to reinstate the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, focusing on economic sanctions to limit Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Though this strategy strained Iran’s economy, it did not bring them to the negotiation table. The geopolitical context has changed, with challenges from China and Russia, and internal U.S. divisions potentially complicating efforts.
Iran is in a weakened position these days as a result of several developments. Its main proxy group, Hezbollah, has been severely weakened by Israel. In addition with the fall of the of Asad in Syria, the route to resupply has been eliminated. Other proxies in Syria are now on the backfoot plus Hamas in Gaza is weakened. See the figure below from the US Department of State showing the main Iranian proxy groups:
Map of Selected Iran-Backed Groups in the Middle East
Iran is supported politically and economically by both Russia and China. In turn Iran has been providing weapons to Russia for the Ukranian war. In addition, China has been and is shipping weapon materials through Iran with the ultimate destination to reach Russia. See the link to the Financial Times article.
In addition, India is importing energy from Iran. This can be seen as a way to keep ties with Iran and as a geopolitical hedge against China. The problem is that this breaks sanctions against Iran. Thus, if a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy is applied by Trump, there will be leaks to to Russia, China and potentially India.
From the Iranian perspective, dealing with Donald Trump is complicated. Within Iran, the divisions on both sides are strong. Historical events such as the assissination of General Qassem Soleimani will make it difficult for Iran to negotiate with Trump. How can they do this in a way that saves face for the regime both within and outside of Iran?
Factors that will push Iran towards negotiations include the dire state of the economy and recent events with the fall of the regime in Syria. The Supreme Leader and his close circle know that authoritarian regimes can cascade quickly. Widespead discontent among the population in Iran is also in the minds of the regime. Citizens ask what did the regime gain by spending billions on its adventures abroad while pushing the population into poverty.
Additional factors could be the risk of a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire which will mean less exports of weapons to Russia. Combined with the current state of Iran defenses which are in a weak state, pressure is on Iran to do a deal. Iran’s main proxy, Hezbollah has been defanged. Air defenses were severely hit by the recent Israeli air strike.
Our view is that Trump is not seeking war and the Iranians know this. Thus, a deal is in the cards, provided Iran can do it in such a way that saves face. Otherwise hawks on both sides, will lead to a result of a joint strike by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear sites. As mentioned, ealier both Russia and China do not want Iran to gain nuclear weapons.
