Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Deal Agreed
A Deal before Trump Takes Power: Will it Hold?
A provisional cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas has been announced, set to last six weeks and focusing on the release of hostages and humanitarian aid. The initial phase includes specific terms for releasing hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as increasing humanitarian assistance in Gaza.
The difficulties will come during the second stage, this is where Israel needs to start a full withdrawal of its troops. The second phase also aims to lead to a permanent ceasefire.
The difficulties in the deal are domestic political dynamics within Israel to start. Netanyahu faces stiff resistance from his far-right allies. This might force Netanyahu to early elections a situation that he wants to avoid.
Who would run the Gaza strip? This uncertain at the moment. The US, Israel and Arab states oppose Hamas, which has ruled it since 2007. However, there is not a viable plan in place especially since Netanyahu has ruled out working with the Palestinian Authority. The US and Arabs have even put pressure on him regarding this solution.
Finally, the long-term issue is a Palestinian state. Here again, the current Israeli government is opposed to this against US, Arab and EU plus others. Incoming US president Trump will likely push for a grand bargain with Saudi Arabia and Israel, but the Saudis will insist on a Palestinian state in the long-term.
Of note is that this deal (revised version of Biden’s deal) was negotiated with collaboration between both President Biden and President-elect Trump. They both used their advisors to work together in order to get the deal pushed through.
Key Points
- Hostage and Prisoner Release: 33 hostages (including women and children) will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
- Humanitarian Aid: Up to 600 trucks of humanitarian aid will be allowed into Gaza daily.
- Phased Approach: The first phase lasts six weeks, with a second phase to negotiate a permanent cessation of hostilities.
- Living Conditions: Many displaced Palestinians are living in makeshift shelters, and the deal includes provisions for temporary housing.
- Negotiations: Further negotiations for the second phase will begin after the first 16 days, focusing on hostages and prisoner exchanges.
Humanitarian Concerns
The cease-fire is a crucial step in addressing the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, where access to basic necessities like food, water, and medical supplies has been severely restricted. The United Nations and various humanitarian organizations have expressed urgent need for increased aid, emphasizing the plight of civilians caught in the conflict.
International Response
The international community has largely welcomed the cease-fire agreement, with various governments and organizations urging both sides to adhere to the terms. Diplomatic efforts continue to secure a more lasting peace, with calls for dialogue and reconciliation between Israel and Palestine. Key Arab and the US are looking for a path towards a Palestinian state in the future. The current Israeli government will look to stall and nix this idea.
Monitoring and Compliance
To ensure compliance with the cease-fire, an independent monitoring body will be established. This body will oversee the release of hostages and prisoners, as well as the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Violations of the cease-fire terms could lead to renewed hostilities, so maintaining trust between the parties is essential.
Regional Implications
The cease-fire may have broader implications for regional stability in the Middle East. Neighboring countries are closely watching the developments, as any escalation could affect their security and political dynamics. The agreement could also influence ongoing peace talks and negotiations involving other regional players.
Future Prospects
While the six-week cease-fire is a positive development, many experts caution that it is merely a temporary solution. Long-term peace will require addressing the underlying issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, including territorial disputes, settlement expansion, and mutual recognition of rights. Continued dialogue will be essential to prevent future escalations and foster a sustainable resolution.
As the cease-fire takes effect, both sides will need to navigate complex political landscapes and public sentiments to build a foundation for lasting peace.
