UK Chagos Islands Deal Awaits Trump
The Geopolitics Behind the Strategic Chagos Islands Deal
Keir Starmer has paused the negotiations on transferring sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius due to US reservations, awaiting Donald Trump’s view. The Chagos Islands, particularly Diego Garcia, hold strategic military importance for the US. The International Court of Justice has ruled against the UK’s claim over the islands, aligning with the views of many national governments. Negotiations involve a potential 99-year lease of Diego Garcia to the UK. The situation involves complex geopolitical dynamics, including concerns over Chinese presence and surveillance.
The sticking points for the deal revolve around control over the right to further extend the lease another 20 years plus the timing and level of payment to Mauritius. The new leader, Ramgoolam, of Mauritius wants to renegotiate the original £9 Billion deal. He is seeking for more money upfront and potentially doubling the amount to £18 Billion.
The Chagos Archipelago, located in the Indian Ocean, has been a point of contention for decades. Originally inhabited by the Chagossians, the islands were depopulated by the UK in the late 1960s and early 1970s to make way for a US military base on Diego Garcia, the largest island in the group. This move has been criticized internationally and is considered by many as an unlawful act of forced displacement.
The map of the Indian Ocean shows the location of Chagos Islands, known as the the British Indian Ocean Territory. It is just south of the Maldives. The distance to Mauritius is about 1,200 miles on the map below:
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled 14-1 against the UK. In the UN, the US, Australia and a only a few more countries backed the UK. The lone vote against the ruling was an American judge. Ruling against the UK were also one Russian and Chinese judge and that very same Russian judge supported the invasion of Ukraine recently.
Further complicating matters, is that even within the UK ruling party, Labour, there are divisions regarding the deal. Some within the Labour party want Starmer to sack the Attorney General for negotiating the deal, but he is a close ally of Starmer. The opposition party strongly opposes it even though they were the ones that opened the issue a few years back. Some in the opposition party have suggested in the conservative UK media that Trump should buy the islands instead. Thus, instead of the UK paying potentially £20 Billion to Mauritius, why not have Trump give that amount to the UK. This argument takes that view that the claim of Mauritius is very weak. When it got independence from the UK in the 1960s, the UK split off the Chagos Islands and paid Mauritius about £3 Million. The two island groups are very far from each other anyways, more than 1,200 miles. For the UK they had just grouped them together to administer easier back in the colonial days. Why then is the UK going ahead with the deal?
In short, the UK sees this as an opportunity to improve its soft power and get closer to the Global South by following through the on the ICJ ruling, even though this was not a binding ruling. Sort of showing good will. Note that the curing government and UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, are strong anti-imperialist and want to shed that image of the UK.
Thus, the question becomes how close is Mauritius to China and will China be able to push its way in somehow. That is a concern for the UK, US and also India since the Chagos Islands are very strategic in the middle of the Indian Ocean. If Mauritius leans closer to India, the deal could be acceptable to Trump and the US as well. Note that most of inhabitants of Mauritius, a former UK colony are of Indian origin. The worry is the increasing economic ties of Mauritius to China.
The Chagos Islands could be on the agenda during the visit of Prime Minister Modi of India with Trump. The US administration, particulary Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, have voiced concern about potential malign ‘Chinese influence.’ There are many reasons for Trump to nix the deal, but there are some benefits of gaining influence with the Global South. However, the US and UK need to make sure the Diego Garcia base is firmly protected under Mauritius future control. If not, we believe this is a bad deal overall in terms the geopolitical contest with China. For India, they have given their approval already probably because they think Mauritius not allow China access to these islands.
Summary of Current Issues Regarding the Chago Island Situation
US Strategic Interests: Diego Garcia serves as a significant military hub for the US, offering a strategic vantage point in the Indian Ocean. The base supports various military operations, including air and naval missions. For example, it provides safe harbour to US nuclear submarines.
UK-Mauritius Negotiations: The United Kingdom has been in talks with Mauritius regarding the transfer of sovereignty over the islands. However, the UK’s strategic interests, alongside those of the US, complicate these negotiations.
International Pressure: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) and United Nations General Assembly have both called for the UK to hand over control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. These rulings add diplomatic pressure on the UK to resolve the issue. The UK recognizes the ICJ, however it is not recognized by the US.
Lease Agreement Discussions: One proposed solution involves leasing Diego Garcia back to the UK or US under Mauritian sovereignty, allowing continued military use while acknowledging Mauritius’ claims.
Concerns Over Chinese Influence: The potential for increased Chinese presence in the region is a significant concern for both the UK and US, influencing their strategic calculations.
