Trump says he will meet Putin in Hungary: Budapest Summit

Trump Tightens Screws on Putin to End War

President Trump said he plans to meet President Vladimir Putin in Hungary in the coming weeks to discuss a cease‑fire in Russia’s three‑year war against Ukraine. After a two‑hour call with Putin, Trump described the conversation as “productive” but also expressed reluctance to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, calling them “vicious” and noting Putin did not want them supplied. Critics warn Trump risks rewarding Putin without securing concrete concessions; supporters say he is pursuing diplomacy after negotiating in other conflicts. White House aides including Secretary of State Marco Rubio are expected to meet Russian officials to prepare for the summit, but experts caution a meeting may yield little unless Russia shows real willingness to negotiate.

Key points

• Trump announced a planned summit with Putin in Budapest, hosted by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, aiming to seek an end to the war in Ukraine.
• After a two‑hour call, Trump said the discussion was productive but signaled reluctance to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, calling them highly destructive.
• Critics warn the approach could reward Putin without guarantees; past Trump‑Putin meetings have produced limited results.
• The White House will send senior advisers to meet Russian officials to lay groundwork, but analysts doubt a summit will succeed unless Russia makes substantive concessions.

The question is what will force Russia to make concessions and end the war? One would be supplying Ukraine with more lethal US weapons – Tomahawk Missles. Thus increasing military preassure. The other would be to pressure countries refining Russian oil like India and Turkey and potentially China (but not likely). This would be economic pressure. Let’s take a closer look at both these US options and threats to force Putin to end the war in Ukraine.

Tomahawks Missles: The Military Threat

Donald Trump floated supplying US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, a move that could extend Kyiv’s ability to strike high-value Russian targets at long range and increase pressure on Moscow. The proposal raises operational, political and escalation risks: the US would likely limit quantities and targeting oversight, Russia may respond aggressively, and the missiles alone would not be a war-winning “game changer” but could meaningfully complement Ukraine’s existing long-range strike capabilities. Expect Zelinsky and Trump to discuss Tomahawks in detail during their meeting prior to the Trump-Putin meeting.

Key points

• Tomahawk basics: subsonic cruise missile with about a 1,600–2,500 km range depending on variant, ~1,000 lb warhead, cost ≈ $1.7M each; typically ship- or sub-launched but land launchers exist.
• Potential scale: estimates vary from a few dozen (20–50) to “hundreds”; Pentagon buys and inventory constraints make large transfers contested.
• Operational effects: would let Ukraine hit high-value military, energy and logistics targets beyond current reach and better evade some Russian air defenses, but land-based launchers and targeting oversight are limiting factors.
• Political and escalation risks: Russia warned of escalation; Moscow could retaliate with increased strikes or rhetoric; the US would likely impose strict targeting controls to reduce escalation risk.
• Strategic impact: not a sole game-changer, but in combination with other systems could significantly increase pressure on Russian capabilities and influence bargaining dynamics.

Russian Oil Exports: Economic Pressure on Refineries

In an opinion piece in the FT by Bill Browder, economic pressure could be increased through tougher meassures on Russian oil exports. Trump has also put pressure on both India and Turkey to curtail oil imports from Russia. In fact, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India in this regards.

Vladimir Putin has financed Russia’s war in Ukraine largely through oil and gas exports, which have remained resilient despite Western sanctions. China, India and Turkey now buy substantial Russian crude, using shadow fleets and opaque insurance to evade price caps and restrictions. To effectively cut Russia’s war finances, the West should target the refineries and intermediaries processing Russian crude by threatening bans on shipping, finance and insurance — extending secondary sanctions — to force major buyers to choose between handling Russian oil and accessing Western markets. Deep cuts in Russian oil revenues could compel Putin to negotiate and prevent funds being used for postwar reconstruction.

Key points

• Russian oil and gas fund a large share of the Kremlin’s war (oil revenues alone rose 25% to $108B in 2024).
• China, India and Turkey have become primary buyers, collectively importing about $380B in Russian crude since 2023.
• The G7 $60/barrel price cap has been undermined by non-compliance, shadow fleets, obscure insurers and shell companies; much Russian crude moves outside G7 tracking.
• EU dependence on Russian LNG (about $122B since Feb 2022) further sustains Russia’s revenue stream.
• Strategic leverage: threaten refineries that process Russian crude (mainly in China, India, Turkey) with bans on Western shipping, finance and insurance unless they stop taking Russian feedstock.
• Expanding secondary sanctions to cover banks, shippers and insurers enabling illicit trade—similar to measures used on Iran—could drive Russian oil onto a black market at steep discounts, slashing revenues and increasing pressure on Putin.
• Cutting oil and gas revenues substantially could help force negotiations and ensure postwar reconstruction funds don’t flow to Russia.

Trump has also put pressure on both India and Turkey to curtail oil imports from Russia. In fact, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India in this regards. In addition the UK has also sanctioned India in this regards.

Western powers are increasing pressure on Russia’s oil sector amid the war in Ukraine. U.S. President Donald Trump said India agreed to stop buying Russian oil (a claim India denies), while Indian refiners are reportedly preparing to reduce purchases from Russia as early as December. The UK imposed sanctions on major Russian oil firms (Rosneft, Lukoil) and several Chinese entities and ports tied to Russian energy trade; China and Russia condemned the measures. Energy markets and geopolitics remain tense as attacks and sanctions reshape flows and buyers.

Key points

• Trump claimed Indian Prime Minister Modi pledged to stop buying Russian oil; India’s foreign ministry said it was not aware of such a call.
• Three sources said Indian refiners may begin reducing Russian crude purchases in December, though no formal ban has been issued.
• The UK sanctioned Rosneft, Lukoil and several Chinese firms, ports and ships involved in Russian energy trade; China lodged a protest and condemned unilateral sanctions.
• Russia said the sanctions would destabilize markets without changing its policy; Moscow and India continue to signal ongoing cooperation.
• Oil markets expected adjustments but traders said it would take time for India to materially reduce Russian imports (Russia supplies ~36% of India’s crude).