Trump Holds off after Iran Halts Plans to Execute Protesters

Gulf States Nervous about Iran Blowback

US President Donald Trump told Iran he did not want war and, after pressure from four Arab states (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt), held off ordering strikes amid a deadly crackdown on Iranian protesters. Gulf countries lobbied Washington to avoid military action, warning of severe regional blowback if the US attacked. While de-escalatory moves followed — including troop adjustments at Al Udeid base — the Trump administration also imposed targeted sanctions on Iranian security officials and networks tied to the crackdown and oil-related money laundering. Key points:

• Trump reportedly warned Iran he did not want war and refrained from ordering strikes after last-minute diplomatic pressure from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt.
• Gulf states argued a US attack on Iran would trigger grave regional consequences for security and economics and pushed for diplomatic de-escalation.
• US forces and personnel movements at Al Udeid air base in Qatar were adjusted amid heightened tensions, then partly returned to normal.
• The Trump administration announced sanctions on Iranian security officials (including Ali Larijani), Revolutionary Guard and entities accused of “shadow banking” to launder oil revenues, freezing US assets and risking secondary sanctions on foreign banks.

Iran Promises to Halt Excecution of Protestors

Iran’s brutal crackdown on widespread protests faced international condemnation. The U.S. under President Trump has threatened “grave consequences,” imposed sanctions on Iranian security officials, and pushed for emergency U.N. attention, while other nations and groups urge de-escalation, offer mediation, or take protective measures. Iran’s government has accelerated trials and maintained internet blackouts, hampering verification of human-rights abuses; rights groups estimate thousands killed.  Key points:

• U.S. actions: Trump warned of consequences, said planned mass executions were halted, and the Treasury sanctioned Iranian security officials and related entities.
• Human cost and information blackout: NGO Iran Human Rights estimates about 3,400 protesters killed; a nationwide internet shutdown (now a weeklong) hampers independent reporting.
• International responses: U.N. Security Council held emergency meetings; G7 condemned the crackdown and threatened further measures; Switzerland offered to mediate; China and Turkey urged against use of force or external intervention.
• Local developments: Iran reportedly expedited trials of protesters; some death sentences appear postponed. Humanitarian and legal concerns prompted Germany (regional states) to suspend deportations and Canada to condemn the violence after a Canadian citizen died in Iranian custody.

Further Insights

President Trump said Iran’s killing of protesters “has stopped” based on intelligence he did not fully disclose, and suggested U.S. action could follow if violence resumed. His comments came after earlier signals that he favored supporting protesters and possible strikes. Thus for the moment things are on hold.

Should we trust the Iranian regime to keep its word. The risk is that after the protests die down, what will happen to the protestors? There is no way of verifying this.

An additional factor to keep in mind is that some US naval assets are in the Caribbean off the coast of Venezuela. If Trump did attack Iran, he would probably need to move some of those naval assets to the Middle East.

The price of crude oil dropped quickly to reflect reduced tensions in the Middle East.