The Rise of Techno-Nationalism and Risks for International Business
New Global Order and US China Geopolitical Risk
The Trump administration adopted an “America First” technology strategy focused on achieving unilateral technological dominance, departing from previous multilateral cooperation. This approach emphasized aggressive competition, especially against China, and prioritized U.S. national security and technological supremacy. The strategy led to increased techno-nationalism, fragmentation of global tech governance, and strained alliances. While the Biden administration shifted back toward international cooperation and coalition-building in tech governance, tensions and challenges remain due to lingering unilateral policies and geopolitical rivalries.
Key Points:
- Trump’s tech policy prioritized U.S. technological dominance unilaterally, sidelining multilateral cooperation.
- The strategy intensified competition with China, including export controls and restricting tech investments.
- Allies and neutral countries responded by seeking independent or third-way technology governance models.
- Biden administration emphasized multilateral coordination and shared values but faced challenges from residual unilateralism.
- The fractured global tech landscape risks slowing innovation and increasing geopolitical tensions in AI and cybersecurity.
Looking ahead, the future of technology governance will likely require a delicate balance between national security concerns and the benefits of international collaboration. While the Trump-era policies underscored the importance of protecting critical technologies from strategic rivals, they also highlighted the limits of pursuing a purely unilateral approach in a highly interconnected global tech ecosystem.
What is Techno-Nationalism?
Techno-nationalism will continue influencing global geopolitics, requiring a balance between national interests and international cooperation. Transparent dialogue, agile governance, and shared values are essential for mitigating risks and promoting a secure, collaborative technological future.
Emerging Trends and Future Directions
As techno-nationalism evolves, several emerging trends and future directions are shaping the landscape:
- Increased Focus on Critical Technologies: Nations are intensifying efforts to secure leadership in foundational technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, advanced materials, and next-generation telecommunications (e.g., 6G). Control over these technologies is viewed as pivotal for economic competitiveness and military superiority.
- Expansion of Export Controls and Investment Screening: Governments are broadening export controls and enhancing foreign investment screening mechanisms to prevent the transfer of sensitive technologies to rival states. This includes scrutiny of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in high-tech sectors.
- Strategic Decoupling: Some countries pursue strategic decoupling—reducing interdependence with geopolitical adversaries in critical technology supply chains. While aiming for greater security and autonomy, decoupling risks inefficiencies and global market fragmentation.
- Public-Private Partnerships and Innovation Ecosystems: Recognizing the importance of private sector innovation, governments are increasingly fostering public-private partnerships, innovation hubs, and ecosystem development to accelerate technology development while maintaining national control.
- Global Governance Initiatives: Despite nationalist tendencies, there is growing recognition of the need for multilateral frameworks addressing shared challenges such as cybersecurity, AI ethics, and standardization. Initiatives by international organizations and coalitions seek to build consensus without compromising national interests.
Recommendations for Policymakers
To navigate the complexities of techno-nationalism, policymakers should consider:
Balancing Security and Openness: Establish policies that protect critical technologies from adversaries while encouraging international collaboration in non-sensitive areas to foster innovation.
Investing in Education and Workforce Development: Build a skilled workforce capable of sustaining technological leadership through education, training, and immigration policies.
Enhancing Cybersecurity and Resilience: Strengthen infrastructure resilience against cyber threats and supply chain disruptions.
Promoting Ethical Standards and Responsible Innovation: Lead global efforts to develop ethical frameworks guiding technology deployment to ensure societal benefits and mitigate risks.
Engaging in International Dialogue: Actively participate in global forums to shape inclusive governance structures that accommodate techno-nationalist concerns without fragmenting the global tech landscape.
Conclusion
Techno-nationalism represents a critical force redefining how countries approach technology development in the context of sovereignty, security, and economic power. While it drives innovation and national resilience, unchecked techno-nationalism may lead to increased geopolitical tensions, reduced global cooperation, and slower technological progress. A nuanced approach balancing national interests with collaborative frameworks offers the best path forward to harness technology’s transformative potential for all.
Additional Resources on Techno-Nationalism
Luo, Y. Illusions of techno-nationalism. Journal of International Business Studies 53, 550–567 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41267-021-00468-5
Birbeck, University of London, Center for Innovation Management Research: Techno-Nationalism and Geopolitical Risk – Prospects for the US/China relationship (CIMR Debate, 22 January 2025). Youtube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJEf5J-p40k&t=30s
