The EU needs to Step-up European Defence Spending
EU Strategic Autonomy on Defense Needed
The potential U.S. retrenchment from Europe has increased, particularly under a possible second Trump presidency. This article highlights the challenges European nations face in developing a cohesive defense strategy in the context of declining American military presence and support. European countries must prepare for varying scenarios of U.S. withdrawal and adapt their defense strategies accordingly, as reliance on American security guarantees may not be sustainable.
The risk of the less commitment to European defense did not start with Trump. In fact, the US approach started with Obama and earlier. Hillary Clinton was the US Secretary of State in the Obama adminsitration when the famous ‘Pivot to Asia’ article was published in Foreign Affairs magazine. This was a suttle hint that Europe would need to share a higher burden of its defense since the US needed to focus on Asia.
During the first Trump term, the approach was more direct with threats not to defend any NATO member who did not spend more than 2% on defense. About 23 out of the 30 NATO members were spending the minimum of 2% during the Biden term. This is when Germany announced its 100 Billion USD defense package.
At the yearly Munich Security Council (MSC), the most important forum to discuss defence, speaches by the Hegseth and Vance shocked EU states. The second term of Trump clearly spelled out that for the US, the European Union was no longer its primary focus. Trump floated numbers that NATO members should spend 5% of GDP on defence and that they should pay back the US for prior support. Then Trump started negotiations on Ukraine with Russia without the Europeans.
We don’t forecast a complete break with US. However, rising threats in Asian demand that the US will pivot there. This means that the EU will need to make hard choices such as spending more on defence and less on social programmes. An unintended outcome of this might be more discontent by EU populations and voting for extreme parties in the future.
Another development is that the if NATO is downplayed because members do not meet the spending requirements, then EU defense might work around a key smaller group of countries and the US. Which countries and what kind of EU-US defense structure should NATO looses importance? Then look at how the US sees Europe. This would be from the over the Artic to counter the Russian threat, thus we can see the UK along with the Scandanvian countries and Poland forming this key group.
Key Points
Commitment at Risk: Concerns about the U.S. possibly withdrawing from NATO and reducing its military presence in Europe are growing, especially under a second Trump administration.
European Strategic Autonomy: European leaders are increasingly aware of the need to take greater responsibility for their own defense, amid debates about defense spending and capabilities.
Collective Action Problem: European nations face challenges in achieving collective defense due to differing priorities and threat perceptions, complicating cooperation.
Response Scenarios: Three potential scenarios for U.S. retrenchment: a rapid withdrawal due to an unforeseen crisis (Taiwan Contingency), a slow decline amid fiscal constraints (Hollow NATO), and a more deliberate withdrawal under Trump (Trump Shock).
Need for Preparation: European policymakers must proactively plan for these scenarios to enhance their defense capabilities and reduce dependence on U.S. military support. Going alone is highly doubtful but they need to increase their contribution to EU defense.
Implications for European Defense
The need for a robust European defense strategy is underscored by the realization that the security landscape is shifting. Without a reliable U.S. military commitment, European nations may face increased vulnerabilities to external threats, particularly from assertive actors like Russia and China.
Strengthening NATO
One of the most immediate responses to the potential U.S. retrenchment is the strengthening of NATO. European allies must prioritize enhancing NATO’s collective defense mechanisms, ensuring that all member states contribute equitably to defense spending and readiness. This may involve:
Increased Defense Budgets: Many European countries currently fall short of the NATO guideline of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Meeting or exceeding this target is crucial for developing a capable and modern military force.
Interoperability and Joint Exercises: To enhance operational readiness, European nations should conduct more joint military exercises and improve interoperability among their forces. This will foster collaboration and strengthen collective defense capabilities.
Developing European Defense Initiatives
In addition to bolstering NATO, European nations can pursue independent defense initiatives. The establishment of the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) are steps in this direction. These frameworks can facilitate collaborative defense projects, pooling resources for research, development, and procurement of military capabilities.
Strategic Autonomy: A focus on strategic autonomy will enable Europe to respond swiftly to crises without relying solely on U.S. support. This involves investing in key areas such as cyber defense, intelligence sharing, and advanced weaponry.
Regional Partnerships: Strengthening regional security partnerships within Europe can also enhance collective defense efforts. Bilateral and multilateral agreements among neighboring countries can lead to more effective responses to regional threats.
While military preparedness is essential, European nations must also engage in proactive diplomacy to mitigate tensions and avoid conflict. This includes:
Dialogues with Russia: Establishing channels for communication with Russia can help manage disagreements and reduce the risk of miscalculation that could lead to armed conflict.
Global Alliances: Strengthening ties with other global partners, such as Australia, Japan, and Canada, can enhance Europe’s security posture and provide additional support in times of need.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as the prospect of U.S. retrenchment looms over Europe, it is imperative for European nations to take concerted actions to bolster their defense capabilities.
It is highly doubtful that the European Union can go it alone in the short to medium term, thus the EU must spend more to reduce the burden by the US.
The future of transatlantic relations may hinge on Europe’s ability to navigate these challenges effectively, ensuring that it remains a secure and stable region amidst changing global dynamics.
