Russian End Game Forecast
Ukrainian Resistance Stronger Than Expected
Our most likely secenario of the Russian end game looks more likely following the recent meeting in Istanbul between negotiators from Ukraine and Russia along with news that Russia may move some of its troops from Kiev to southern Ukraine.
From our perspective, the Russian military seemed to be holding back around the Kiev area and our view was this was to divert Ukrainian forces from south Ukraine. What do we mean by holding back? The Russians did not employ their substancial firepower on Kiev like other cities in eastern Ukraine. This half-approach failed thanks to a stronger than expected Ukrainian resistance. Either this was incompetence or for historical reasons (Kiev is important in both Ukrainian and Russian history) this felt different.
It is likely that the initial plan of capturing the government of Ukraine failed and Russia had no plan B for Kiev. With the war currently moving to a longer drawn out phase and the addditional unexpected economic pressure felt by Russian this could push Putin to seek a face-saving way out.
Russian End Game
Thus, a more limited goal of expanding further into Ukraine from Crimea and connecting with the Donbas region along the coast seems to be the way out for Putin. The meeting in Instanbul will be used by Russia to gain time in order to secure this more limited goal after the failed attempt to oust the government in Kiev. This can be summarized below:
- Expand control of the area around Crimea
- Connect Crimea along the coast bordering the sea of Azov with the Donbass region.
- Control the Donbass region and eventually annex it to Russia.
- Secure that Ukraine never enters NATO.
