China and Japan Escalate Spat over Taiwan

Tensions Rise over Taiwan Comments by Takaichi

Japan-China tensions rose after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warned a Chinese attack on Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival, prompting Beijing to urge its citizens to stop visiting Japan. Tokyo dispatched a senior diplomat to Beijing to calm ties, while Taiwan’s president urged China to show restraint. The spat has already hurt Japanese tourism and retail stocks and could have lasting economic and security implications.

Key points

• Takaichi’s comments (Nov 7) broke past diplomatic taboos and triggered strong Chinese responses, including a travel advisory and sharp rhetoric from officials and state media.
• Japan sent Masaaki Kanai to Beijing to explain its security stance and request China avoid actions that damage bilateral relations; Tokyo says communications remain open.
• Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te called on the international community to monitor China and urged Beijing to act like a responsible major power.
• Economic impact: Chinese visitor warnings and political friction hit tourism- and retail-sensitive stocks (e.g., Isetan Mitsukoshi, Japan Airlines); analysts warn a prolonged rift could significantly dent Japan’s growth.
• Security flashpoints include Chinese coastguard activity near the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, air and drone activity near Yonaguni, and renewed debate in Japan about its nuclear principles.

 Hit to Japanese Tourism, Seafood Exports and Education

Japan’s education ministry warned schools operating in China to protect students after rising tensions between Beijing and Tokyo. The dispute erupted after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan might respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan, prompting strong Chinese retaliation — import bans on Japanese seafood, travel advisories, and pressure on tourism and students. Experts say Takaichi’s remarks mark a departure from Japan’s previous strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, increasing diplomatic strain and economic fallout, though both sides appear motivated to avoid a complete rupture.

Additional Chinese actions include the Chinese embassy issuing travel and student advisories; Coast Guard announced patrols near the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. A major economic Impact from Chinese government warnings could deter Chinese tourists (about 7 million visits last year) and harm Japan’s tourism economy.

To put this into context, past relations frequently flare over historical and territorial issues; China has used travel advisories and tourism measures in past disputes with the U.S., Australia and South Korea.

Key points

• Japan warned schools in China to ensure student safety amid escalating diplomatic row with China.
• Takaichi’s comments that Japan could use force if China attacked Taiwan triggered harsh Chinese measures (seafood import suspensions, travel warnings, tourism and student discouragement).
• Analysts view Takaichi’s stance as a shift away from previous strategic ambiguity, explicitly putting Taiwan at the center of a major China–Japan crisis.
• Economic consequences already visible: mass travel cancellations and pressure on Japanese businesses; both governments nonetheless seem to seek containment to avoid total breakdown.

Backlash to Chinese Economic Coersion

China launched diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Japan might be able to use its Self-Defense Forces in a scenario where China attempted to seize Taiwan. Beijing warned tourists and students against travel to Japan, sent coast guard ships near disputed islands, delayed cultural exchanges and canceled planned high-level meetings. The forceful response aims to signal China’s power and deter Japan but risks international backlash and accusations of economic coercion.

FIrst, Takaichi’s comments about possible military intervention over a Taiwan blockade sparked strong reactions from Beijing, which demanded a retraction. As mentioned previous, China used multiple reprisals: travel warnings, maritime patrols near disputed islands, postponing cultural events and declining summit meetings.

The spat has spilled over to the domestic audiences with reactions split: some Chinese hawks call for harsher measures; many Japanese officials and citizens denounce Beijing’s actions as excessive.

The problem with this is that China’s economic coercion (e.g., threats around rare-earth exports) could backfire by prompting broader international efforts to reduce dependence on China. Let’s not forget that China had recently escalated with the US and west regarding rare earth exports. Thus major trading partners of China like the US and Europe and now Japan are increasing loosing trust in China as a reliable trading partner which could have long-term implications.

Of course China had to respond to the statement by the Japanese Prime Minister, but the strategy to escalate looks to be not in the long-term interests of China.