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30Nov 16
Black Oil Pump Jacks In The Desert Of Bahrain, Middle East

OPEC Forecast

We have taken a speculative position on the OPEC meeting in November.  There are arguments for both a deal and also a no-deal scenario. I will briefly discuss both scenarios,…

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16Nov 16
US Federal Reserve System Emblem

FED Rate Forecast

Today the PPI (Producer Price Index) not including food and energy came in negative.   The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the next one to look at. Irregardless inflation expectations…

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13Oct 16
Federal Reserve System Emblem

FED Rate Forecast & FMOC Minutes

The FMOC meetings confirm a divided FED.  This should be expected at turning points at times of uncertainty. Our view has always been that the November rate hike was highly…

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12Sep 16
Holding On To Rising Stock Market

Market Volatility View

Market volatility has gone up over the last few days.  In fact it was under 12 during the past 5 days and recently jumped to over 18.  Currently, it went…

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07Sep 16
United States Federal Reserve Emblem On Note

FED Outlook 2016

Our forecast for the next US Fed rate rise has been revised to account for the recent macro data.   The data has come in weaker than it should to warrant…

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