Agreement on Ukraine Peace Plan now Waiting on Talks with Putin

Ukraine Supports New Peace Plan but will Putin?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine is ready to advance a U.S.-backed peace framework with Russia but warned that sensitive issues — especially territorial concessions — remain unresolved. U.S. President Donald Trump said a deal is “getting close” and downplayed a deadline, while U.S., Russian and Ukrainian envoys held talks in Geneva, Abu Dhabi and elsewhere. Meanwhile, Russia launched heavy missile and drone strikes on Kyiv, causing civilian casualties and infrastructure damage. The proposed 28-point plan has raised concerns it could force Ukraine to cede territory and accept military limits that Kyiv and many Europeans find unacceptable.

Thus, the European states and Ukraine circulated less Russia‑friendly counterproposals (24‑ and 28‑point variants). Key differences from an earlier 2022 Istanbul Communiqué show shifts toward concessions for Russia (territorial recognition, sanctions relief, and formalized limits on Ukraine’s sovereignty and military) while other items (security guarantees, sanctions enforcement, reconstruction funding, monitoring mechanisms) remain vague or politically fraught. No agreement was reached by Thanksgiving; negotiations and competing drafts continue.

The European counterproposal and continuing diplomacy: Europeans offered a 28-point counterproposal (most recently about a 19-point counterproposal) that removes or softens the most pro‑Russian elements (e.g., territory wording, asset-control clauses) and adds clearer monitoring/implementation modalities. Talks continue; the drafts may be starting points for further negotiation but are far from a negotiated settlement.

In addition, if we compare the key differences from an earlier 2022 Istanbul Communiqué show shifts toward concessions for Russia (territorial recognition, sanctions relief, and formalized limits on Ukraine’s sovereignty and military) while other items (security guarantees, sanctions enforcement, reconstruction funding, monitoring mechanisms) remain vague or politically fraught. No agreement was reached by Thanksgiving; negotiations and competing drafts continue.

Key points

• Zelenskiy supports the framework’s essence but insists sensitive points (notably territory and security guarantees) must include Ukraine and European input.
• European counterproposal and continuing diplomacy: Europeans offered a 28-point counterproposal (most recently about a 19-point counterproposal) that removes or softens the most pro‑Russian elements (e.g., territory wording, asset-control clauses) and adds clearer monitoring/implementation modalities. Talks continue; the drafts may be starting points for further negotiation but are far from a negotiated settlement.
• Trump called the peace plan a concept and said the deadline is over; U.S. envoys are meeting Russian and Ukrainian officials to narrow differences.
• The original 28-point plan had alarmed Kyiv and European allies because it could require large territorial concessions and restrictions on Ukraine’s military alignment (e.g., NATO).
• Note that the origin and status of the 28-point plan should be seen as a draft/“living” document rather than a final treaty; the White House and lawmakers reacted with confusion and condemnation. European and Ukrainian officials produced alternative drafts, seen as less favorable to Russia.
• Problematic provisions in Original Plan: proposals to use frozen Russian assets under U.S. control for reconstruction, a U.S.–Russia investment vehicle, rapid elections in Ukraine (100 days), broad amnesty for wartime acts, and a peace council chaired by Donald Trump drew particular criticism as unrealistic, intrusive on Ukrainian sovereignty, or politically implausible.
• Fighting continues with heavy Russian missile/drone strikes on Kyiv killed civilians and disrupted power/heating, underscoring the high stakes and public scepticism about a rapid deal.

Putin’s Likelihood on Accepting New Peace Plan

Russian President Vladimir Putin sounded cautiously open to a U.S. peace proposal to end the Ukraine war, but analysts and Ukrainian officials doubt he will accept terms that require major concessions. Moscow’s recent battlefield gains, insistence on territorial “realities,” and Kremlin statements suggest Russia is unlikely to accept a deal that amounts to surrender. Observers warn negotiations may stall or be used by Russia to buy time while pressing military advances.

In additon, we think Putin is unlikely to accept peace terms that preserve Ukrainian independence because he believes victory is possible, benefits of war bolster his regime politically and economically, and his long-term goal is to erase independent Ukraine as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity. To change Putin’s calculus, the West must strengthen Ukraine militarily, apply tougher sanctions—especially on energy—and show sustained political will.

Key points

• Putin said the U.S. text “could form basis” for a settlement, but Kremlin spokespeople and deputies cautioned it’s too early to say a deal is close.
• Putin refused earlier favorable peace terms because he perceives battlefield advantage, domestic political and economic gains from the wartime economy, and fear that an independent Ukraine threatens Russia’s unity and regime survival.
• The original 28-point U.S. proposal was pared to 19 points after talks; Kyiv rejected several concessions (e.g., limits on its armed forces, amnesty for war crimes).
• Analysts and ex-diplomats view Russia as unlikely to abandon maximalist goals; battlefield gains reinforce Moscow’s bargaining position and reduce incentives to compromise.
• Negotiations have restarted (meetings in Geneva, Abu Dhabi; U.S. envoy planned to visit Moscow), but previous rounds failed and progress — if any — may take months rather than weeks.
• Ukraine insists on sovereignty, security guarantees and continued Western military aid; many Ukrainian officials distrust Putin to honor any deal.
• The Kremlin’s policies include repression, forced Russification and eradication of Ukrainian statehood in occupied areas—reflecting a goal to annihilate Ukrainian independence.

Behind the Scenes: Role of Jared Kushner

Former White House adviser Jared Kushner has re-emerged as an informal U.S. peace broker in efforts to end the war in Ukraine, working alongside Trump confidant Steve Witkoff. The duo have drafted a multi-point peace proposal modelled on the Gaza ceasefire plan and have engaged with Russian and Ukrainian officials, causing concern among some Western allies about the informality of the process and potential concessions to Russia.

Key points

• Kushner, despite limited regional background and having left government to run a private equity firm, is advising and helping draft a Ukraine peace plan alongside Steve Witkoff.
• Their approach mirrors the Trump administration’s Gaza ceasefire blueprint: a written multi-point proposal meant to jumpstart negotiations and provide a framework for a deal.
• The effort has included contact with senior Russian figures (e.g., Kirill Dmitriev) and produced drafts that worried some European allies as too close to Russian demands.
• Critics warn the initiative is driven by a small, trusted circle around Trump rather than formal policy mechanisms, raising transparency and coordination concerns.