Cuba is Next: CIA Director visits Cuba

US Demands Economic and Political Change in Cuba

C.I.A. Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba amid a severe energy crisis — days after Havana said fuel for power plants was exhausted — to deliver President Trump’s demand that Havana make economic and political changes, including closing alleged Russian and Chinese intelligence posts. The visit, the highest-level by the Trump administration to Cuba, is part of an escalating U.S. campaign combining diplomatic pressure, economic measures (including a U.S. blockade of oil shipments), and potential criminal indictments against Cuban officials. Cubans are enduring prolonged blackouts, relying on charcoal and wood, and protesting shortages; Cuban leaders blame a U.S. “energy blockade.” Key points:

• Ratcliffe personally met influential Cuban figures (including Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro and the head of Cuban intelligence) to press U.S. demands and warn against allowing foreign intelligence operations.
• The trip fits a broader Trump administration strategy seeking regime change via economic pressure, diplomatic engagement, intelligence activity, and possible indictments of senior Cuban figures.
• Cuba faces a deep energy crisis after Venezuelan fuel shipments stopped and U.S. restrictions limited alternatives; recent Russian deliveries offered only a temporary reprieve.
• Cuban officials insist the island is not a security threat to the U.S.; Havana publicly accepted humanitarian aid while blaming the U.S. for the crisis.
• The visit is notable given historic U.S.-Cuba animosities and follows previous secret high-level meetings in other administrations, but reflects an unusually confrontational U.S. approach.

GAESA: The Unaccountable Military-Run Conglomorate

In short, GAESA controls about 40 to 50% of the economy. It is unaccountable with an estimated 15 to 18 Billion USD hidden in offshore accounts. This has enriched the elites in Cuba with very little of the gains going towards the population. The question if there is a power change, then how to find this money that really belongs to the Cuban government. It is basically stolen money hidden by the elites. US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio stated that wealth in Cuba is controlled by the generals while people are ‘eating garbage in the streets.’

As mentioned, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba pressing for major economic-security changes as U.S. officials increase pressure on GAESA — the military-run conglomerate that controls large swathes of the Cuban economy. U.S. actions (sanctions and investigations) coincide with claims the Castro family used GAESA to concentrate power and wealth while much of Cuba’s population faces deepening poverty and essential services are neglected.

U.S. escalation: Trump issued an executive order targeting GAESA; prosecutors pursue indictments tied to drug-trafficking incidents; Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls GAESA a mechanism for elite enrichment and promises further measures.

Origins and role: GAESA grew from post‑Soviet-era measures letting the military run businesses to stabilize the state; it now runs hotels, transport, currency exchange, supermarkets, gas stations and overseas ventures.

Secrecy and control: GAESA’s finances are opaque (not in the state budget); leadership has been filled by Castros and close associates, keeping the family’s influence despite occasional leadership changes.

Economic consequences: GAESA prioritized tourism and luxury projects (121 hotels by 2025) even as tourism collapsed after renewed sanctions and the pandemic; Cuba spent a large share of its budget on tourism while education and health care budgets fell and basic goods are scarce.

Political impact: Military control of economic enterprise reduces incentives for political reform; critics say GAESA consolidates power and contributes to worsening poverty and neglect of traditional sectors like sugar.

In short, GAESA controls about 40 to 50% of the economy. It is unaccountable with an estimated 15 to 18 Billion USD hidden in offshore accounts. This has enriched the elites in Cuba with very little of the gains going towards the population. The question if there is a power change, then how to find this money that really belongs to the Cuban government.

Background to Current Crisis

Trump is taking a different approach than Obama on Cuba. While the Obama attempt had a good will intensions to slowly change things in Cuba, it was not Trump during his first term that nixed the plan. In fact, the plan was already failing before Trump first got into power in 2017.

Sanctions have played a role in hurting the Cuban economy, but a much bigger role is the failure of Cuban government and communisism as an economic model.

Since Castro came to power, Cuba has harbored hostile-power influence in the Western Hemisphere. This of course includes Russian initially (Cuban Missle Crisis in the 1960s), Chinese radar installations, Iranian terror groups, etc.

The new National Defense Strategy of Trump, the New Monroe Doctrine, has countered Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere. First with Panama, then Venezuela and now with Cuba. Most likely Nicaragua is next in line after Cuba.