US and Saudi Arabia in Talks for Defense Pact

Implications of Israeli Attack on Qatar and Gaza Peace Plan

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a “strategic mutual defence” pact in Riyadh that says an attack on one will be treated as an attack on both. The deal — announced amid anger in the Gulf after an Israeli strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders — reflects Gulf states’ desire to diversify security partnerships beyond the United States and to strengthen regional deterrence. Riyadh says the pact is defensive, maintains commitment to non‑proliferation, and builds on long Saudi–Pakistani ties; it comes against a backdrop of recent India–Pakistan clashes, Gulf concerns about U.S. reliability, stalled Saudi–Israel normalization, and broader regional tensions over the Gaza war.

Key points

• The pact commits Saudi Arabia and Pakistan to mutual defence: aggression against one is treated as aggression against both.
• Agreement follows an Israeli strike in Doha and growing Gulf unease about U.S. dependability and Israeli actions in the region.
• Saudi–Pakistani relations are longstanding (financial support, defence cooperation); Riyadh says the pact is defensive and consistent with non‑proliferation.
• The deal occurs amid heightened regional risks: Pakistan–India exchanges earlier in 2025, stalled Saudi–Israel normalisation, and anger in Riyadh over Israel’s Gaza campaign.

The Sept. 9 Israeli strike in Doha (targeting Hamas figures) and an apparently muted U.S. response prompted Saudi Arabia to formalize a Sept. 17 defense pact with Pakistan, declaring aggression against one is aggression against both. The Israeli strike in Qatar that exposed doubts about U.S. willingness to defend Gulf allies.

Our Forecast and Insights: The US countered this fear, by signing a defense pact with Qata. This was also broadcast by Trump during the recent Peace Plan for Gaze that was held in Egypt. With the Peace Plan in place and the first steps taken by Israel and Hamas, it makes it easier for Saudi Arabia to go back to normalizing ties with Israel. Thus, we expect the defense pact between the US and the Saudis to proceed. In summary, this will allow the US to pivit more resouces to asia to counter any potential Chinese agression on Taiwan.

US and Saudi Arabia Move towards Defense Pact

Saudi Arabia is negotiating a US defence pact with the Trump administration that could be signed when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits the White House next month. The proposed deal — expected to include enhanced military intelligence cooperation and broader security guarantees — follows recent regional shocks (including an Israeli strike in Qatar and other attacks) that have increased Gulf states’ concerns about US commitment. Talks may take the form of a standalone treaty or an executive order; negotiations continue and political conditions (notably possible Saudi normalization with Israel) could affect timing. Meanwhile Riyadh is diversifying security ties, recently signing a defence pact with Pakistan and continuing large US arms purchases.

Key points

• A robust US–Saudi defence agreement is being discussed and may be finalized during the Crown Prince’s forthcoming US visit.
• The pact would likely emphasize military intelligence sharing, missile defence, maritime security and other force capabilities.
• Regional security shocks (Israeli strike in Doha, past attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, tensions with Iran) have accelerated Saudi urgency for stronger guarantees.
• The deal could take form of a standalone treaty or executive order; normalization with Israel remains a potential sticking point which depends on the success of the Gaza Peace Plan.
• Saudi Arabia is also broadening security partnerships (e.g., a recent mutual-defence pact with Pakistan) while remaining a major US arms buyer.

The Real Reason behind the Proposed US-Saudi Defense Pact

A proposed U.S.–Saudi bilateral defense treaty predates the Gaza conflict and would be about more than regional politics: it aims to deepen U.S.-Saudi strategic integration, limit Chinese influence, and enable the United States to rely more on capable regional partners so it can focus on global priorities (notably the Indo‑Pacific). The pact would bind Riyadh closer to Washington through mutual defense commitments, technology and training cooperation, and expanded multilateral coordination in the Middle East, while carrying risks from mismatched expectations and the unpredictability of U.S. foreign‑policy politics.

Key points

• Strategic purpose: The treaty is global in scope — it would strengthen U.S. influence, constrain Chinese inroads, and let Washington reallocate resources to other priorities by empowering regional partners.
• Practical benefits: Mutual defense guarantees, deeper technology and military cooperation, and regular joint exercises could professionalize Gulf forces, improve crisis management, and entrench U.S. norms (e.g., on tech, data, supply chains).
• Multilateral payoff: The agreement could catalyze broader regional defense cooperation (building on the Abraham Accords) and help Gulf states contribute to global challenges like climate, critical minerals, and diplomatic initiatives.
• Main risks: Misaligned expectations about Saudi commitments (including ties with other powers) and the volatility of U.S. domestic politics; treaty ratification and Saudi normalization of Israel are important political prerequisites.

 Summary

The Saudi-Pakistan mutual defense pact formalizes a historic but previously informal security relationship, signaling a shift in regional burden-sharing. For Saudi Arabia it offers firmer external guarantees against Iranian-backed threats, Houthi attacks, and rising regional instability; for Pakistan it raises Islamabad’s geopolitical profile and provides important security backing amid tensions with India. The pact reduces Washington’s default security role in the Gulf, redistributes regional defense responsibilities, and may complicate U.S. nonproliferation and Indo-Pacific strategies. Uncertainties remain over nuclear implications, the degree of Pakistani commitment (including any nuclear umbrella), and how the arrangement will affect India, Iran, Israel, China, and U.S. influence.

The pact shifts security burden from the U.S. toward regional actors: Riyadh and Islamabad formally commit mutual defense, helping Saudi share risk and limiting American entanglement and costs. U.S. implications: reduces Washington’s direct control over regional security architecture, relieves some U.S. burdens but complicates U.S. Indo-Pacific goals and political appetite for deeper commitments in the Middle East. Complications here mean the US trying to balance India and Pakistan relations.

A U.S.–Saudi security deal long discussed as linked to Saudi normalization with Israel could be restructured: Riyadh might accept a U.S. security guarantee without full normalization, but Washington would need to extract concrete reciprocal commitments. Such a pact would cover faster U.S. arms sales and interoperability, integrated air and missile defense, counterterrorism cooperation, limits on Saudi ties to China/Russia in defense, oversight of a civilian nuclear program, oil-market coordination, and increased Saudi investment in the U.S. The proposed deal would expedited arms sales and interoperability, curbing Saudi defense ties with China/Russia, participation in an Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) network, intelligence and counterterrorism cooperation, and logistics/access for any U.S. action against Iran.

Most importantly, having a more stable geopolitical environment in the Middle East allows the US to pivot more resources towards East Asia to deter any future Chinese agression.