Israel-Iran Tensions: Conflict or Descalation

Is Israel Seeking to Destroy Iranian Regime?

Israel’s recent military actions against Iran’s nuclear program, marking a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Following nearly 20 months of conflict after October 7, 2023, Israel has moved from defensive operations against Hamas and Hezbollah to directly targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities. This strategy reflects Israel’s determination to neutralize existential threats and reshape regional security dynamics, diverging from U.S. approaches favouring ceasefires and arms control.

U.S. President Donald Trump has called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” amid ongoing air conflict between Israel and Iran. The tensions have escalated into a significant air war, reflecting the deep geopolitical strife in the region.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has drawn the United States deeper into the crisis. Despite President Donald Trump’s public commitment to a diplomatic resolution on June 12th, Israel launched attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and air defenses, leading to Iranian missile and drone strikes on Israeli cities. The U.S. has been providing significant military support to Israel, including missile defense and intelligence, while debating how far to commit militarily. The situation risks spiraling into a broader war with uncertain consequences for the region and American interests.

The conflict risks expanding with potential Iranian retaliation on American targets or regional shipping routes. Oil facilities throughout the Middle East could become a target if Iran feels it has nothing to loose.

Our View: by killing large parts of the close inner circle to the Iranian regime, Isreal is clearly going for regime change in addition to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear capability. For Trump, the escallation puts Iran in a less favorable position and could motivate to negotiate quicker. The all in scenario, would have the US get involved to destroy the key deep in the ground nuclear facility. In addition, both Israel and the US at that point would further weaken the Iranian regime hoping it would collapse.

Key Points

• Israel declared a transformative goal for the Middle East in October 2023, following prolonged conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah.
• The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have significantly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, reducing their threat levels.
• Israel’s recent attacks on Iran have targeted nuclear facilities, missile production, and senior regime figures, aiming to inflict lasting damage.
• This marks a strategic shift from deterrence to active military engagement against Iran, reflecting Israeli leadership’s existential concerns.
• The approach contrasts with U.S. policy favoring diplomatic measures, highlighting tensions between Israel and American administrations.
• The outcome of these actions could lead to a new security paradigm in the Middle East with uncertain regional consequences.

Implications for Regional and Global Politics

Israel’s direct military actions against Iranian targets represent a pivotal moment that could redefine alliances and hostilities across the Middle East. By moving beyond defensive measures and engaging Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Israel signals its unwillingness to tolerate any perceived existential threats, even at the risk of wider conflict. This stance may complicate diplomatic efforts led by the United States and other international actors seeking to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions through negotiations or sanctions.

The shift also underscores the divergent security priorities between Israel and the U.S., with Israel emphasizing immediate and decisive military solutions while the U.S. remains cautious, advocating for ceasefires and diplomatic engagement. This divergence may strain the historically close U.S.-Israel relationship, especially if Israeli actions provoke broader regional instability or retaliatory attacks by Iranian proxies.

Potential Outcomes

Several scenarios could unfold from Israel’s aggressive posture:

• Escalation of Conflict: Iran might respond to Israeli strikes with increased support for proxy groups or direct military action, possibly igniting a broader regional war. This also includes destoying underground nuclear facilities and decapitating the regime.  In this scenario, we would expect oil facilities throughout the middle east to become a target. 
• Deterrence: The damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program might delay or degrade its capabilities, potentially deterring future aggression. Iran could pursue this option biding its time.  
• Diplomatic Shifts: Pressure from military actions could push Iran toward negotiations under new terms or harden its resolve, complicating diplomatic solutions.
• Regional Realignments: Neighbouring countries may reassess their security strategies, possibly leading to new alliances or increased militarization.  This is more long-term in nature. 

Conclusion

Israel’s recent military campaign against Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure marks a profound shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. While it reflects Israel’s determination to safeguard its security, it also introduces significant risks of escalation and diplomatic friction. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this approach leads to lasting regional stability or further conflict.