Final Poll Analysis of 2024 Presidential Elections and Prediction

Polls Playing Conservative with Close Forecasts

The U.S. presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is showing a close contest as Election Day approaches. Polls indicate that both candidates are making last-minute efforts to appeal to swing states, which will be crucial in determining the election outcome. Harris could become the first woman and first person of South Asian descent elected president, while Trump could make history as the first indicted president to win a non-consecutive term.

Key Points

• Polling Status: Harris leads in battleground states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump has a lead in Arizona and close races in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
• Survey Details: Various polls show differing results, with some indicating a tie or narrow leads for both candidates. Many have criticised the results saying that the results have been muted with overlays on the final data adjusting the numbers to project a 50-50 race. In other words, the estimates have been very conservative and adjustments made lead to group think to play it safe after getting prior elections wrong.
• Forecast Models Favoring Trump:
• FiveThirtyEight predicts Trump has a 53% chance of winning.
• New York Times/FiveThirty Eight Poll has Harris leading by 1% nationally and in Michagan and Wisconsin. Trump has very small lead in Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
• Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 54% chance, with projections for 277 Electoral College votes for Trump and 261 for Harris.
• Nate Silver’s model favors Trump but suggests Harris might win the popular vote.
• The Iowa Ann Selzer Poll which shows Harris with a 3% lead is from a respected pollster and could signal that Trump might not do so well in other midwestern states. This poll should be take seriously since the data showed more women and expecially older women moving the vote towards Harris.
• Most polls show that Harris leads slightly in battleground states like Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona and has close races in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.
• The forecasts indicate a competitive race, with different models giving slight advantages to either candidate.
• Harris is projected to have a higher chance of winning the popular vote, while Trump has better odds in the Electoral College.
• Final Campaigning: Both candidates campaigned heavily in key swing states leading up to Election Day. The goal would be to get critical undecided voters and their base to come out to vote.

Our view is that polls are underestimating the woman vote as has recently been born out in the Iowa Ann Selzer Poll. Also any undecided voters are either expected to vote for Harris or stay home. Trump is relying more on men to push him over the top.

Thus, we forecast that Harris will win the US Presidential Election on her winning since women will push her over the top in two critical mid-western states: Michigan and Wisconsin. Thus, assuming she wins these two states the following paths are her key to victory:

1. Win in Pennsylvania: has 19 electorial votes and would be the only state she needs to win to get to the magic number of 270 electorial votes.
2. Loss in Pennsylvania: if we assume Trump wins Arizon (very likely) and also Pennsyvania then the electorial vote would be at Harris 251 and Trump at 249. We think Harris will just win in Nevada and the race will come down to Georgia and North Carolina. Our feeling is that Harris has a better chance with Georgia since the urban areas are more democratic and Trump would have to win the rural areas with enough votes to tip the balance. Again we think woman will swing the state towards Harris and she will get 273 electorial votes versus 265 electorial votes for Trump.

In short, we are placing more weight on the well-respected Iowa Ann Selzer Poll and this means that Harris will do better in the mid-western states. Thus, putting both Michigan and Wisconsin as wins, she only needs Pennsylvania to win. Failing that, the combination of Nevada and Georgia will be the second path to victory.

What this points out is that popular vote will not matter. Instead the clearest path for either candidate will be to win Pennsylvania. Could Trump win? The answer is yes if he wins Pennsylvania and then either North Carolina or Georgia with 16 electorial votes each plus Nevada with 6 electorial votes. That would give him the magic number of 271 and he would be the next president.

The Harris campaign has a better and bigger grass roots organization thus we think the odds of her winning Georgia are increasing. This has been shown in some recent polls. If Trump won North Carolina, the deciding state would be Nevada.

In both Georgia and Nevada, several key demographic changes could push the vote in the Harris camp. In Georgia there are an increasing number of Asian-Americans who tend to vote democratic. For example, Biden won the state by only 12,000 votes in 2020 and he probably would have lost if it were not for the increase of 16,000 in Asian-Americans in urban areas of Georgia. In Nevada, it will depend on how many Filipino voters come out to vote especially around Las Vegas. In short, Harris will win those two states if more women and Asian-Americans come out to vote.

In conclusion, we see two viable paths for Harris to win the presidential race.