Turkish EU Deal is a Game Changer
Just as Turkey seemed to be sliding into escalating violence and chaos, an opportunity arose and President Erdogan agreed to 3 Billion Euro aid package with the EU. The impetus…
UK BOE keeps rates on hold – Future?
The labour market is very tight with unemployment at the medium term trend of 5.5%, this is down from over 8% a few years ago. Thus, the job market is…
ECB – Weak Data and German Slowdown
Germany is experiencing a slowdown in exports thanks to weakness in emerging markets, especially China which accounts for 6.5% of German exports. The slowdown in China could be more than…
Japan – BOJ Stimulus is it Yes or No?
The bad news is that growth is slowing for domestic and external reasons. The good news (if you can call it that) is that Japan is not the only large…
TPP – A Geopolitical Trade Deal for US and Asia
This deal is really about implementing the Asian ‘pivot’ since China is not included purposely. There are 12 countries that represent 40% of world GDP, with the US and Japan…
Brazil – Policy Challenges and Very Negative Outlook
The economy has declined by 2.5 to 3 % of GDP according to most estimates. Next year will also see a decline of over 1% of GDP. The slowdown in…
